Cinderella's Slipper

All indications are that the BCS sees itself as a servant of the NCAA, the bowl organizers, conference commissioners and university presidents, and considers the measures of its performance to be its television ratings and year-over-year revenue growth. Given this perspective, the BCS can drape itself in a thick shroud of hubris and carry on as though Mack Brown hasn’t called for its abolishment, as though Pete Carroll hasn’t said of the system, “I think it stinks”, as though the Attorney General for the state of Utah hasn’t filed an anti-trust lawsuit, as though Congress hasn’t threatened legislation, as though the television networks don’t dictate its behavior, as though President Obama is just an ordinary fan, as though ordinary fans will forever tune in to or buy tickets for any title game the BCS arranges. The BCS is wrong; it is on a path to extinction and hubris will hurry its demise. The first rule of politics is: know your constituency and satisfy your constituency. The first rule of business is: know your customer and satisfy your customer. Whether the BCS regards itself as being in the political arena or operating a cash-cow business, it is violating the first principle of its survival, it is serving its beneficiaries rather than its constituents. The real constituents of the BCS system are the fans, the media and the coaches whose livelihoods are dependent upon success within the system. Had the BCS acted to correct its problems after the debacle of 2003 or after the disaster of 2004, it could have chosen its own path forward, could have made relatively painless adjustments to foster confidence among its real constituents. But the miracle finish of 2005 was like a drug that masked the symptoms of a deadly disease and deceived the BCS into thinking it could focus on its beneficiaries at the expense of its constituents. In 2006 the BCS mistakenly invited Ohio State to the title game and nearly failed to invite Florida, the eventual national champion. In 2007 the BCS got both teams wrong. In 2008 the BCS made two astute choices but the constituents didn’t believe the selections. That lack of credibility puts the BCS system at risk; the funds that flow from its constituents to the BCS’ vested interests are its lifeblood, and without that lifeblood the BCS will cease to exist. How long will it be until fans ignore the institution that ignores them? All indications are that the revolution is in full bloom. Contrary to the pessimistic predictions in the media, I therefore predict that the BCS will change, will adopt a playoff system, because like any living organism, its first priority is its own survival. And when the BCS does change, it will require a foolproof method of ranking teams, it will require Cinderella’s Slipper.